Esoteric Principles of the Kondratieff Winter  

To fully appreciate the Kondratieff Wave theory, one may wish to explore some of the esoteric aspects of such a far-flung theory. The Kondratieff Wave principle is rooted in the natural laws of the universe. Unfortunately, most observers and market pundits are only concerned with purely scientific applications in their analysis of capital markets and economies.

Most are unable to fathom the implications set forth in the long wave theory because they would reject the factors I have listed below as irrelevant, unable to be measured, and regarded as pure conjecture. Yet the articles in this section will establish some of the assertions below and thus serve to give the reader a richer grasp of the profound nature of this provocative concept. These notions include, among others that:

Economies can be thought to be of as natural organisms, susceptible to the rhythms of nature just as humans;

Economies and markets move in natural cycles that can be reasonable measured and predicted;

Economies and markets are destined to repeat their history just as humans;

Economies and markets can be thought of as energetic beings susceptible to the laws of electromagnetism;

Economies and markets have biological properties much like human ecosystems;

Economies and markets behave in the classic chaos theory model.

Say what? Disbelievers are invited to peruse the articles below and decide for themselves. The articles below are profoundly provocative and provide a perspective missing in mainstream media.

Please enjoy and I would love to hear any and all comments. Please send them to peter@kondratieffwinter.com. Enjoy and be dazzled!

1. Sunspot Cycles and Human History - This excerpt is from a book written in 2002 by Michael Mandeville called The Coming Economic Collapse of 2006. It recounts the observations made by a Russian astronomer A.L. Tchijevsky during World War I suggesting that severe battles followed intense solar activity. He created an "Index of Mass Human Excitablility" by compling data from 72 countries from 500BC to 1922 AD and found that 80% of the most significant human events, mostly related to war and violence, came within a few years of maximun sunspot activity.
   
   The data and observations make a solid case that the solar cycle does indeed have an impact on human behavior as reflected in areas such as the weather, wars, economic activity, and other non-human phenomenon. Chart 103 is especially helpful in understanding their impact on major recessions and depressions. It shows that during a sunspot peak, a speculative Bull Run bubble breaks down and is followed by a major recession or Depression. His mention in 2002 of a jobless economic recovery of recent times amidst massive subsidy stimulation was spot on.
   
   

2. NEW! Extropy: An increase in Complexity - Given the maddening, white knuckle ride in the markets of late I decided to include this piece on extropy so our readers can get more acquainted with the level of change that we are witnessing on a daily basis. The Dow saw a range of 2000 points in one week (September 15-19th) that was the highest ever on record. As we enter the Kondratieff Winter we can expect more of the same, and the attached material on extropy accounts for part of that volatility. Simply put, the pace of change is increasing at a geometric rate and has been increasing for years. This increase is universal in nature and not limited to capital markets as the evidence will show. The bottom line is that we all need to accept and understand this trend so we can adapt to the changing times. This means not being married to any stock or sector for the long term so that we aren’t to set in our beliefs because we must all strive for optimal flexibility. (Posted September 20, 2008)
   
   

3. Creative Destruction - Posted on trendocracy.com this blog considers the virtues of “creative destruction” exhibited by the ancient Aztecs every 52 years in their ritualistic Tying up the Years ceremony. Much like the Mayans, they were able to use their supreme knowledge of mathematics and astrology to track the super-cycles evident in nature to mitigate their effects and thus emerge from climate cycle bottoms in better condition than otherwise. They knew that the cycle of destruction and renewal was inevitable and calculated the 52 year period, remarkably similar to the Kondratieff cycle, based on an integration of the solar, celestial and human gestation cycles.
   
   It suggests that given we are in the late stages of the Kondratieff cycle that we could also benefit through managing our own “creative destruction”  to cope with the new realities of a Kondratieff Winter. I proposed this very notion in he November 6^th commentary in the Blog section by proposing that the Fed should have instead held rates steady to use the ensuing destruction to carve away the excesses most needing to be removed from the system.  
   
   

4. Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars - This report is included for its potential relevance in understanding the origins of the Kondratieff Wave in the mid-1700’s as modern economies formed out of nation states. It is a fascinating read and quite radical in its assertion that economies themselves are much like humans in that they are energetic beings susceptible to being manipulated through the natural sciences, namely electromagnetism. It credits legendary banker Meyer Rothschild with the creation of a shrewd scheme of fiat currency having a subtle and apparently innocuous nature yet imposing control over nations of people. Read on to discover Meyer’s “Energy Discovery” that enabled it to endure to the present. While sinister in its core assumptions, it is nonetheless as provocative as anything on our site. Frankly, I believe it must have some truth from the sheer volume of extremely technical support offered. Its source cannot be confirmed but is believed to be from a book titled Behold a Pale Horse by William Cooper. You can decide for yourself what merit and relevance it has in the evolution of super-cycle economies.
   
   

5. Fractional Reserve Banking as Economic Parasitism – In our opinion this report is the single best paper on fiat currency archived on this site because it provides the most insightful and comprehensive report on the history and nature of fiat currency to be found anywhere. It dazzles the reader with the manner in which it compares economies to human ecosystems plagued by parasitic forms that interact much in the same way as their biological counterparts.  The material is presented in the highly technical terms needed to make such a remarkable correlation but throughout mixes in meaningful wise quotes from the famous to insure that the basic principles of the subject matter are gleaned and appreciated. Once absorbed, one can’t help but stop to reflect on the insidious nature of the beast therein.